Growing Qawm: an Evidence-Driven Declarative Model of Afghan Power Structures

By means of evidence-driven and declaratively implemented social simulation, we grow qawm — solidarity networks in Afghanistan. The study of qawm lends insight into the structural and processual dynamics of Afghan society. In particular, we concentrate on the evolution of power structures. An agent-based computational model is presented whose ontology borrows from neopatrimonialism, a notion of power prevalent in contemporary conflicts. In this model, agents’ structural arrangement, behavior and cognition are informed by qualitative data derived from case studies on Afghanistan. The simulation results suggest that the emergence of qawm and, hence, the fragmentation of Afghan society are systemic and lead to a constant drain of resources. Cross-validation between the simulated network and a target system network reveals that qawm exhibit small world characteristics.